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Abstract

The cumulative number of local confirmed cases was highly correlated with the total inflow population from Wuhan before the city closure, and the proportion of third-generation infections in a local region is tiny. Accordingly, we proposed an approximate method to quantitatively evaluate the regional control efficacy of COVID that takes into account effects of both imported cases and regional population. We applied this method to evaluate the control efficacy of the top-50 cities with maximum inflow population from Wuhan. The 10 cities with the most significant control efficacy are Shijiazhuang, Luoyang, Enshi, Zhoukou, Xiamen, Guiyang, Xianning, Anqing, Xinyang, and Nanning.

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Authors and contacts

Corresponding author:Zhou Tao,zhutou@ustc.edu

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Cited By

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城市名称	武汉流入人数 (万人)	常住人口数 (万人)	累计确诊人数	控制因子c的取值	防控效果排名
孝感市	65.620	492.000	3482	0.0758	26
黄冈市	63.630	633.000	2904	0.0579	18
荆州市	31.660	559.020	1576	0.0674	22
咸宁市	25.340	254.330	836	0.0430	7
鄂州市	20.525	107.770	1385	0.1481	45
襄阳市	19.240	566.900	1175	0.0884	31
黄石市	18.875	247.070	1008	0.0898	33
荆门市	15.460	289.650	920	0.1000	37
随州市	14.980	221.670	1305	0.1710	47
仙桃市	14.345	114.000	575	0.0713	24
宜昌市	13.850	413.585	926	0.1068	38
天门市	10.165	127.230	495	0.0924	35
恩施市	9.310	337.800	251	0.0275	3
十堰市	8.975	340.600	671	0.1285	41
信阳市	7.190	647.410	274	0.0439	9
重庆市	6.620	3101.790	576	0.0921	34
长沙市	5.755	815.470	242	0.0484	13
潜江市	5.610	96.200	195	0.0590	20
北京市	5.130	2154.200	400	0.0879	30
上海市	3.855	2423.780	336	0.0978	36
郑州市	3.385	1013.600	157	0.0531	16
南阳市	3.360	1001.360	155	0.0528	15
驻马店市	3.320	805.180	139	0.0482	12
九江市	2.720	489.680	118	0.0571	17
广州市	2.660	1490.440	346	0.1738	48
成都市	2.650	1604.470	143	0.0588	19
深圳市	2.610	1302.660	417	0.2253	49
岳阳市	2.560	579.710	156	0.0877	29
南昌市	2.490	554.550	229	0.1471	44
安庆市	2.310	469.100	83	0.0430	8
合肥市	2.260	808.700	174	0.1088	39
周口市	2.190	867.780	76	0.0352	4
西安市	1.855	1000.370	120	0.0833	27
南京市	1.845	843.620	93	0.0623	21
阜阳市	1.690	1036.000	169	0.1402	43
杭州市	1.690	820.700	155	0.1338	42
商丘市	1.655	732.530	91	0.0725	25
常德市	1.580	582.700	82	0.0707	23
宜春市	1.455	555.370	106	0.1110	40
南宁市	1.405	725.410	55	0.0446	10
苏州市	1.315	1072.170	87	0.0844	28
昆明市	1.245	685.000	53	0.0513	14
衡阳市	1.215	720.530	48	0.0453	11
温州市	1.160	925.000	504	0.7040	50
六安市	1.155	483.700	69	0.0891	32
天津市	1.140	1559.600	135	0.1547	46
石家庄市	1.135	1103.120	29	0.0186	1
洛阳市	1.120	688.850	31	0.0245	2
贵阳市	1.120	488.190	36	0.0353	6
厦门市	1.115	411.000	35	0.0352	5

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Vol. 69, Issue 10 - 2020-05-20

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