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Aiming at the state transition between bank networks, we propose a time-varying state network model. In this model, we classify the bank networks in each time period by the kmeans method, and use directed minimum spanning tree(DMST) method to describe the topological structure of each kind of bank network. We also construct a time-varying bank state network by the planar maximally filtered graph(PMFG) method. The state network can be used to find the source of bank risk and conduct the time-varying analysis. We put into the model the inter-bank lending data of 15 listed Chinese commercial banks from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2019. The results show that the short-term continuity jump between the bank states can effectively describe the occurrence of financial crisis. For example, before and after the global financial crisis in 2008, there was a short-term jump between two states. From the “money shortage” in 2013 to the stock market crash in 2015, there were four short-term jumps between states. At the same time, the outgoing degree of each directed bank state network is directly proportional to the contagion effect, and the incoming degree is inversely proportional to the steady degree of the risk faced by the bank. The sequential bank state network has the memory characteristic, which can provide the central bank for decision basis to prevent the systematic risk.
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Keywords:
- bank network/
- directed minimum spanning tree/
- risk contagion intensity/
- planar maximally filtered graph
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] -
编号 银行 类型 编号 银行 类型 1 浦发银行 股份制商业银行 2 民生银行 股份制商业银行 3 华夏银行 股份制商业银行 4 招商银行 股份制商业银行 5 兴业银行 股份制商业银行 6 北京银行 地方商业银行 7 上海银行 地方商业银行 8 中国农业银行 国有商业银行 9 中国交通银行 国有商业银行 10 中国工商银行 国有商业银行 11 中国建设银行 国有商业银行 12 中国银行 国有商业银行 13 中信银行 股份制商业银行 14 平安银行 股份制商业银行 15 宁波银行 地方商业银行 状态1 状态2 状态3 状态4 状态5 状态6 状态7 状态8 状态1 1.000 0.927 0.918 0.909 0.410 0.949 0.714 0.708 状态2 0.927 1.000 0.968 0.874 0.549 0.911 0.881 0.819 状态3 0.918 0.968 1.000 0.887 0.630 0.911 0.893 0.875 状态4 0.909 0.874 0.887 1.000 0.481 0.963 0.757 0.767 状态5 0.410 0.549 0.63 0.481 1.000 0.422 0.707 0.861 状态6 0.949 0.911 0.911 0.963 0.422 1.000 0.75 0.734 状态7 0.714 0.881 0.893 0.757 0.707 0.750 1.000 0.884 状态8 0.708 0.819 0.875 0.767 0.861 0.734 0.884 1.000 状态 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 全局相似度 6.536 6.929 7.082 6.638 5.060 6.639 6.587 6.647 银行 状态1出度 状态2出度 状态3出度 状态4出度 状态5出度 状态6出度 状态7出度 状态8出度 头节点数 中心节点数 浦发 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 民生 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 华夏 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 招商 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 兴业 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 北京 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 上海 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 农业 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 交通 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 工商 13 0 5 11 1 12 0 0 1 4 建设 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 中国 0 8 7 1 13 1 13 13 0 5 中信 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 3 0 平安 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 宁波 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29]
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