搜索

x

留言板

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

downloadPDF
引用本文:
Citation:

    苏佳杭, 伍钧, 胡思得

    Identification of spent nuclear fuel with multivariate analysis based on database

    Su Jia-Hang, Wu Jun, Hu Si-De
    PDF
    HTML
    导出引用
    • 近年来, 随着国际核军控形势的变化, 包含防扩散、防核恐及核安保的多边国际军控合作越来越受到重视. 核取证技术作为防扩散、防核恐及核安保的一项核心技术, 在对涉核非法活动的威慑、阻止以及响应方面具有重要作用, 值得深入研究. 目前针对核取证技术的研究较多, 主要集中于材料的表征和数据的解读. 其中解读作为核取证研究技术中最重要的一环, 所面对的对象是多种多样的, 包括铀矿石、黄饼、核燃料、乏燃料等, 而其中乏燃料由于其潜在的威胁越来越受到重视. 本文聚焦于在核取证场景中利用多元统计分析方法进行乏燃料鉴别的研究, 主要是利用因子分析、判别分析和回归分析方法对乏燃料组分进行分析, 研究各方法的适用范围, 并为未来可能的利用数据库进行乏燃料鉴别的工作提供理论依据与可行方案, 为相关核取证溯源工作的顺利开展提供支撑.
      In recent years, as the international situation about nuclear arms control changes, the multilateral international arms control cooperation including non-proliferation, nuclear terrorism and nuclear security has drawn more and more attention. As a key technology, nuclear forensics plays a significant role in the deterrence, prevention and response to illegitimate nuclear activities, for which it needs studying in depth. At present, there are plenty of researches into nuclear forensics, mostly focusing on the characterization of materials and the interpretation of data. As one of the most important aspects of nuclear forensics research, the interpretation is faced with a variety of different objects, including uranium ore, yellow cake, nuclear fuel, spent nuclear fuel and so on, among which spent nuclear fuel has attracted more and more attention due to its potential threats. In this paper, we primarily focus on the development of multivariate statistical analysis with an aim to interpret the comparative signatures of spent nuclear fuel. A database is established with uranium and plutonium isotopic compositions of spent nuclear fuel samples through simulation. These samples are of different reactor types, initial fuel enrichments and burn-ups. Subsequently, multivariate analysis, including factor analysis, discriminant analysis and regression analysis, are used to the database to validate the feasibility of the identification work. First of all, dimension reduction and visualization work is carried out to determine the possibility for classification by factor analysis. Afterwards, some known samples are assumed to be unknown to further study the possible capabilities of quantitative attribution by conducting factor analysis, including the determination of initial fuel enrichment and burn-up. To eliminate the errors in the identification work and to achieve better outcomes, the discriminant analysis and regression analysis are used to the database to assist with the identification of the reactor type, initial fuel enrichment and burn-up. As revealed by the study, factor analysis is more suitable for the dimension reduction and visualization work, disciminant analysis is more suitable for the identification of reactor type, and regression analysis is more suitable for the identification of initial fuel enrichment and burn-up. Upon the comparison drawn of the three different multivariate analysis methods, a framework for identification process is established to provide a theoretical basis and feasible scheme for the possible identification work of spent nuclear fuel with database, and facilitate the related nuclear forensics work.
        [1]

        [2]

        [3]

        [4]

        [5]

        [6]

        [7]

        [8]

        [9]

        [10]

        [11]

        [12]

        [13]

        [14]

        [15]

        [16]

        [17]

        [18]

        [19]

        [20]

        [21]

        [22]

        [23]

        [24]

        [25]

        [26]

        [27]

        [28]

        [29]

        [30]

        [31]

      • 堆型 初始装料 丰度 燃耗/GWd·tU-1
        PWR UO2 2%—4.5% 5—50
        PWR MOX 天然铀, 4%—5%裂变钚 30—50
        CANDU UO2 0.711% 0.3, 2—8
        CANDU UO2 1.2% 5—20
        LMFBR MOX 80%的贫化铀(0.2%以下), 12%的Pu-239, 8%的Pu-240 50—100
        MAGNOX (HTGR) UO2 0.711% 1—10
        GCR (HTGR) UO2 1%—4% 1—20
        HTGR UO2 10%—30% 5—30
        下载: 导出CSV

        未知样品 模拟参数
        堆型 初始装料 燃耗/GWd·tU–1
        1 PWR UO2, 3.2% 23
        2 PWR MOX, 4.7% 裂变钚 38
        3 HTGR UO2, 18% 27
        下载: 导出CSV

        未知样品 模拟参数 预测参数 相对误差
        堆型 初始装料 燃耗/GWd·tU–1 堆型 初始装料 燃耗/GWd·tU–1 初始装料 燃耗/GWd·tU–1
        1 PWR UO2, 3.2% 23 PWR 3.197% 23.104 0.5% 2.08%
        2 PWR MOX, 4.7%裂变钚 38 PWR 4.686% 38.324 2.78% 6.49%
        3 HTGR UO2, 18% 27 HTGR 17.855% 27.328 2.91% 6.55%
        下载: 导出CSV

        未知样品 分类 概率
        真实 预测 1(PWR UO2) 2(PWR MOX) 3(CANDU) 4(LMFBR) 5(MAGNOX) 6(GCR) 7(HTGR)
        Uk1 1 1 0.9852 0 0.0148 0 0 0 0
        Uk2 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
        Uk3 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
        下载: 导出CSV

        未知样品 模拟参数 因子分析结果 线性判别分析结果
        初始装料 燃耗/GWd·tU–1 初始装料 燃耗/GWd·tU–1 初始装料 燃耗/GWd·tU–1
        1 UO2, 3.2% 23 3.197% 23.104 3.201% 23.0361
        2 MOX, 4.7%裂变钚 38 4.686% 38.324 4.703% 37.9312
        3 UO2,18% 27 17.855% 27.328 18.003% 27.9196
        下载: 导出CSV

        未知样品 模拟参数 因子分析结果 线性判别分析结果 线性回归分析结果
        初始装料 燃耗/GWd·tU–1 初始装料 燃耗/GWd·tU–1 初始装料 燃耗/GWd·tU–1 初始装料 燃耗/GWd·tU–1
        1 UO2, 3.2% 23 3.197% 23.104 3.201% 23.0361 3.2005% 23.022
        2 MOX, 4.7%裂变钚 38 4.686% 38.324 4.703% 37.9312 4.6993% 38.019
        3 UO2, 18% 27 17.855% 27.328 18.003% 27.9196 18.001% 26.991
        下载: 导出CSV
      • [1]

        [2]

        [3]

        [4]

        [5]

        [6]

        [7]

        [8]

        [9]

        [10]

        [11]

        [12]

        [13]

        [14]

        [15]

        [16]

        [17]

        [18]

        [19]

        [20]

        [21]

        [22]

        [23]

        [24]

        [25]

        [26]

        [27]

        [28]

        [29]

        [30]

        [31]

      • [1] 曹文静, 刘小菲, 韩卓, 冯鑫, 张琳, 刘肖凡, 许小可, 吴晔.新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情确诊病例的统计分析及自回归建模. 必威体育下载 , 2020, 69(9): 090203.doi:10.7498/aps.69.20200503
        [2] 项正, 谈家强, 倪彬彬, 顾旭东, 曹兴, 邹正洋, 周晨, 付松, 石润, 赵正予, 贺丰明, 郑程耀, 殷倩, 王豪.基于范阿伦卫星观测数据的等离子体层嘶声全球分布的统计分析. 必威体育下载 , 2017, 66(3): 039401.doi:10.7498/aps.66.039401
        [3] 韩伟, 周丽丹, 李富全, 王芳, 冯斌, 郑奎兴, 巩马理.光束通量空间分布随机变化的统计分析. 必威体育下载 , 2014, 63(7): 074204.doi:10.7498/aps.63.074204
        [4] 吕金光, 梁静秋, 梁中翥.多级反射镜阵列Monte Carlo法误差合成与统计分析. 必威体育下载 , 2012, 61(22): 220701.doi:10.7498/aps.61.220701
        [5] 郑浩勇, 王猛, 王修星, 黄卫东.基于Wenzel模型的粗糙界面异质形核分析. 必威体育下载 , 2011, 60(6): 066402.doi:10.7498/aps.60.066402
        [6] 司夏萌, 刘云.虚拟社区中人际交互行为的统计分析研究. 必威体育下载 , 2011, 60(7): 078903.doi:10.7498/aps.60.078903
        [7] 李维峰, 梁迎新, 金勇, 魏建华.AlxGa1-xAs:Si 中DX中心的双极化子机制及统计分析. 必威体育下载 , 2010, 59(12): 8850-8855.doi:10.7498/aps.59.8850
        [8] 刘涛, 黄高明, 王雪松, 肖顺平.Weibull分布随机波的瞬态极化统计分析——相同形状参数情形. 必威体育下载 , 2009, 58(5): 3140-3153.doi:10.7498/aps.58.3140
        [9] 张善文, 巴音贺希格.衍射光栅积分理论中核函数的简化及其特性分析. 必威体育下载 , 2008, 57(6): 3486-3493.doi:10.7498/aps.57.3486
        [10] 邵建立, 王 裴, 秦承森, 周洪强.冲击加载下孔洞诱导相变形核分析. 必威体育下载 , 2008, 57(2): 1254-1258.doi:10.7498/aps.57.1254
        [11] 张华伟, 李言祥.金属熔体中气泡形核的理论分析. 必威体育下载 , 2007, 56(8): 4864-4871.doi:10.7498/aps.56.4864
        [12] 高永华, 赵志恒, 侯召宇, 曹鹤飞, 段春贵, 何祯民.改进的核密度模型与强子-核Drell-Yan过程中的核效应. 必威体育下载 , 2006, 55(11): 5760-5763.doi:10.7498/aps.55.5760
        [13] 程南璞, 郑仁蓉, 朱顺泉.准粒子特征与奇奇核的能谱统计. 必威体育下载 , 2001, 50(6): 1035-1039.doi:10.7498/aps.50.1035
        [14] 贺智勇, 李祖玉, 靳根明, 段利敏, 戴光曦, 吴和宇, 张保国, 文万信, 漆玉金, 罗清政.核核碰撞中不稳定轻核的方位角各向异性发射. 必威体育下载 , 1996, 45(9): 1438-1443.doi:10.7498/aps.45.1438
        [15] 袁进胜, 孙昌璞.旋转样品核四极共振的量子绝热微扰论分析. 必威体育下载 , 1995, 44(1): 29-34.doi:10.7498/aps.44.29
        [16] 邵其鋆.两种作用势溅射模拟结果的统计分析. 必威体育下载 , 1992, 41(10): 1715-1721.doi:10.7498/aps.41.1715
        [17] 陆祖荫, 孙汉城, 刘惠长, 何泽慧.原子核乳胶核-2、核-2载硼、核-2载锂、核-3、核-4、核-5的制备方法和特性. 必威体育下载 , 1959, 15(3): 139-144.doi:10.7498/aps.15.139
        [18] 于敏, 邓稼先, 周孝谦, 李扬国.轻原子核的变形. 必威体育下载 , 1958, 14(6): 449-468.doi:10.7498/aps.14.449
        [19] 李整武.轻原子核的质量. 必威体育下载 , 1957, 13(1): 30-57.doi:10.7498/aps.13.30
        [20] .铀核之自裂. 必威体育下载 , 1953, 9(1): 3-14.doi:10.7498/aps.9.3
      计量
      • 文章访问数:6385
      • PDF下载量:38
      • 被引次数:0
      出版历程
      • 收稿日期:2019-01-21
      • 修回日期:2019-04-01
      • 上网日期:2019-05-01
      • 刊出日期:2019-05-05

        返回文章
        返回
          Baidu
          map